Where Kentucky baseball stands as May nears
The Wildcats are still in a position to host an NCAA Tournament regional, but a few questions are starting to emerge.
Fifteenth-ranked Kentucky salvaged the final game of a three-game series against Texas A&M, defeating the Aggies 8-1 at Kentucky Proud Park on Sunday. Following a postponement of the opener on Friday, Texas A&M took both games in Saturday’s doubleheader. The Aggies won 6-3 in the first game and rallied to take the lead with two outs in the top of the 9th when Austin Bost hit a two-RBI double. Kentucky’s Emilien Pitre led off the bottom of the 9th with a single and reached second following a surprising sacrifice bunt by Hunter Gilliam, the team leader in home runs, before Nolan McCarthy and Jase Felker struck out to end the game.
Still, Kentucky returned on Sunday and easily took the series finale. Senior outfielder Jackson Gray had one of his best games of the season, finishing 3-3 with a home run in the second inning and a bases-clearing triple in the seventh inning to break the game open. The Wildcats received 5.2 scoreless innings from their bullpen in the victory.
With another series in the books, let’s look at some developing storylines as the regular season begins to wind down.
REGRESSING TO THE MEAN?
Following a come-from-behind victory in the series opener against Georgia on April 7, Kentucky improved to 9-1 in the SEC. The Wildcats had completed sweeps against Mississippi State and Missouri at home and won two out of three against Alabama on the road. To that point, the mark of the season had been a remarkable consistency. Kentucky was 4-1 in one-run games, had not lost a series all season, and was (and still is) perfect in midweek games.
But since the opener against Georgia, the Wildcats have hit a bit of a rough patch. The Bulldogs swept a doubleheader on Easter Sunday to give Kentucky its first series loss of the season. It was surprising at the time since Georgia was 1-9 following the series opening loss, but the Bulldogs have since carried that momentum and are now 7-11 in the SEC after a sweep of Arkansas.
A difficult road series at No. 1 LSU awaited Kentucky after the Georgia series. Kentucky was blown out 16-6 in the first game, rebounded with a 13-10 win on Friday night and gave up a late lead on Saturday in a 7-6 loss. To be clear, winning just one game against LSU made for an OK weekend in my book. LSU’s top end talent is the best in college baseball, and few teams are good enough to come away with a series win in Alex Box Stadium.
That brought us to this past weekend. Texas A&M, despite a worse than expected start to the season, came to Lexington as winners of its past three SEC series. It left with another series victory, dropping Kentucky to 2-6 in the league since the Friday victory against Georgia.
Kentucky is now 30-9 overall, 11-7 in the SEC. This season is ahead of schedule — it took Kentucky just 39 games to reach 30 wins, by far the fastest to reach that mark in the Nick Mingione era — and the Wildcats are still in the thick of hosting an NCAA regional. But three straight SEC series losses with a difficult remaining schedule make a national seed bid unlikely at this point. The Wildcats have a series left against three top-5 teams: South Carolina, Florida and Vanderbilt. A road series at No. 24 Tennessee is the other series in that stretch. Tennessee had been having a disappointing season, but a resounding sweep against in-state rival Vanderbilt might jumpstart a second-half turnaround for the Vols.
Add in a midweek game on Tuesday against No. 21 Louisville and that means 13 of Kentucky’s final 14 games will come against teams currently ranked in D1Baseball.com’s top 25. There’s still a possibility that the postponed game at Louisville could be rescheduled, so that would be one more game against a ranked team.
From what I’ve seen of this Kentucky team, I wouldn’t be surprised if it found a way to take at least one of the final four SEC series. That would boost its hosting chances as long as it isn’t swept in the other series. But it’s also fair to say that, outside of LSU, the final four series are against the most talented teams on the Wildcats’ schedule. It’s a tough stretch and one that will define the Wildcats’ pecking order in the NCAA Tournament.
QUESTIONS EMERGING ON THE MOUND
In Kentucky’s three SEC series victories, the pitching staff had an excellent team earned run average of 2.73. In the three series that it’s lost, the ERA ballooned to 5. The number of free passes also increased significantly. In the series wins, Kentucky’s pitching staff struck out 71, walked 45 and hit nine batters. In the series losses, the Wildcats struck out 61, walked 57 and hit 17 batters. Considering Florida, South Carolina and Tennessee are the best homerun hitting teams in the conference and all rank in the top-5 in the SEC in slugging percentage, the likelihood that free passes will catch up to Kentucky increases.
Big picture, I’ve been a fan of how pitching coach Dan Roszel has used Kentucky’s pitching staff. When everyone was fully healthy, the Wildcats had a nice collection of depth to use on the weekends. Logan Martin served in the Friday night role and seventh-year senior Darren Williams would be first out of the bullpen and pitch as long as he could before turning it over to a different option. On Saturday, Tyler Bosma and Austin Strickland were typically the first two pitchers who would be in the game. For Sunday, Zack Lee and Ryan Hagenow were likely to throw. In between, guys like Seth Chavez, Mason Moore, Ryder Giles, Jackson Nove and Evan Byers were likely to get innings.
However, as the season continues, a few questions have emerged.
First, Martin suffered a non-throwing injury that caused him to miss a few starts. He’s started four SEC games, but he’s not made it past two innings in any league start. He’s more or less been a college version of the “opener” that has been utilized in Major League Baseball. In his most recent outing against Texas A&M, Martin walked five of the 11 hitters he faced. Giles came in and allowed a three-run home run before being replaced by Williams. Williams is viewed as a steady presence and would probably be who I trust most to start an NCAA Tournament game, but he’s currently sitting with a 5.37 ERA in the league. He’s given up multiple runs in five of his six appearances, but he’s at least shown an ability to pitch around four or five innings most outings.
Bosma and Lee seem relatively secure in their weekend starting roles, but the bullpen has started to show some cracks. Chavez, who was a key late-inning reliever, left the Georgia series early with an injury and hasn’t pitched since. Hagenow was a midseason All-American and didn’t give up an earned run all season until a rough LSU appearance. Eight of his 11 pitches went for balls as he faced just three batters before being pulled for Giles. He did not make an appearance against Texas A&M in Saturday’s games.
Moore and Nove, two sophomores, have been bright spots for the bullpen. Moore is holding opponents to a .193 average, but he’s struggling a bit with command. He has 16 walks in 16.2 SEC innings, including five walks against the Aggies.
Getting Hagenow back into the flow and Chavez returning healthy will be critical. I think Magdiel Cotto is also likely to have more opportunities moving forward. Touted as Kentucky’s top draft prospect coming into the season by multiple publications, Cotto has appeared in just seven games this season. He struck out the side in the 9th inning against Texas A&M and threw 13 of his 19 pitches for strikes. That’s an encouraging sign for a bullpen that could use some additional depth.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Kentucky will host Louisville at Kentucky Proud Park on Tuesday evening. First pitch is scheduled for 7 p.m. on the SEC Network. The Wildcats then travel to Nashville for a series against No. 5 Vanderbilt. As noted above, the Commodores were swept by Tennessee and also dropped their midweek game against Indiana State, but their 13 conference wins are still tied with South Carolina for the most in the SEC.
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