Projecting Kentucky's pitching staff in 2023
UK's staff has intriguing options on the weekends and depth in the bullpen, but roles are still being defined.
A few months ago, while gathering my thoughts for this team, I scanned the roster and concluded that this might be the deepest pitching staff since I began covering the program in 2015. That doesn’t mean it will be Kentucky’s best staff – I want to make that clear up front – but there seem to be more legitimate options with SEC or college baseball experience this year than most years prior.
With that said, there are two big things we don’t know about this year’s team yet. First, does Kentucky have a true Friday night talent to match the other frontline starters in the league? Second, who emerges as a stopper in the bullpen? Those are questions I’ll explore more in a different story.
Before digging into how things might look this spring, let’s look at who Kentucky lost from last year’s staff:
RHP Tyler GuilfoilÂ
RHP Sean Harney
RHP Cole Stupp
RHP Wyatt HudepohlÂ
LHP Mason Hazelwood
Guilfoil is one of the best developmental stories in Kentucky’s program, going from a closer at Lipscomb to one of the best pitchers in the SEC a year ago. Guilfoil earned First-Team All-SEC honors as a reliever after recording an impressive 51.1 innings out of the bullpen with a team-high 80 strikeouts. The Houston Astros drafted Guilfoil in the sixth round of last year’s MLB draft. Harney was Kentucky’s best starting pitcher by the end of the season but also spent time as a long reliever and closer in his two years in Lexington.Â
Other notable departures – at least in terms of appearances and innings pitched – include right-handers Stupp, Harper and Hudepohl. Stupp, the Wildcats’ Friday night starter, was lost for the season early in SEC play and was drafted following the season. Harper produced an excellent senior season, appearing in 26 games and finishing with a 2.73 ERA in 36.1 innings. Hudepohl had the second most appearances on the team with 22, but he finished with a 7.48 ERA and transferred to Charlotte after the 2022 season. Hazelwood returned from a season-ending injury in 2021 and made eight starts for the Wildcats last spring.Â
But most of the other arms are back from last year and a few newcomers are also expected to earn roles.
Here are my projections for the staff to start the season.Â
WEEKEND ROTATION
Friday: Logan Martin RHP
Saturday: Tyler Bosma LHP
Sunday: Zack Lee RHP
Still in the mix: Mag Cotto LHP, Darren Williams RHP, Ryan Hagenow RHP, Travis Smith RHP
At this point, Logan Martin and Tyler Bosma are locked in for the weekend rotation.
Martin, a transfer from Sewanee, will likely be the Friday night starter to begin the season. During his outing this fall against Xavier, he sat in the mid-90s with his fastball. The jump from Division III to Friday night starter is a massive one, without question, but it’s best to think of Martin as a legitimate draft prospect. He turned down offers to sign with MLB clubs last summer because he wanted to compete in the SEC. Kentucky will count on him to help set the tone on Friday nights during league play.
Bosma had a phenomenal lasting impression last season as he carried a no-hitter into the 7th inning in the SEC Tournament against LSU. The 6-foot-6 lefty dealt with injuries last season but still made 10 starts, with seven coming in the SEC. He finished the year with a 4.79 ERA, 43 strikeouts to 19 walks. He’s the Wildcats’ returning leader in innings pitched with 41.1. Look for Bosma to be the Saturday starter to begin the season.
But the battle for the Sunday starter hasn’t been as clear cut. When players returned to campus for the fall semester, I likely would’ve had Mag Cotto somewhere in the rotation. Cotto, a 6-4, 250-pound left-hander who, at his best, can pump fastballs in the upper 90s, impressed last summer in the prestigious Cape Cod League and is widely considered the Wildcats’ top prospect heading into the season by MLB scouts. But he’s lacked consistency and might be more likely to start in the bullpen.
At the start of January, Ryan Hagenow might’ve been a front-runner for the position. Hagenow was considered a top-100 MLB prospect as a high schooler but wound up on campus after the 2020 draft was shortened to five rounds because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Hagenow’s tenure has been up and down as he’s dealt with injuries and command issues, but there’s hope that Kentucky has figured out the right recovery formula for him. There’s still time for Hagenow to show why he was one of the top players in the country as a high school senior, but he’ll need to cut down on his free passes significantly. Hagenow walked 33 batters in 29.2 innings last season. Still, hitters hit just .196 against him.
But as of now, I’d lean toward senior right-hander Zack Lee earning the final spot in the rotation. Lee was Kentucky’s Sunday starter in 2021 and started four SEC games in 2022. He’s experienced and has had flashes of dominance, like his 7-inning, one-hit-allowed shutout against Alabama in 2021. But he had enough struggles that Kentucky ultimately went in a different direction to start the 2022 season. He still went on to start four SEC games. However, Lee has thrown the ball well in recent weeks and might’ve done enough to get the first crack at being the Wildcats’ Sunday starter.
That’s not to say other pitchers won’t be able to show they’re deserving. The 2022 season showed how important depth is after Stupp and Williams were lost for the season with arm injuries. Williams, an EKU transfer, is in his seventh year of college baseball after returning to the program following Tommy John surgery in 2022. He’s healthy entering the season, which is good news for pitching coach Dan Roszel. Williams, a native of Maysville, Kentucky, had a 0.93 ERA in 29 innings last season. Whether it’s out of the bullpen or back in the rotation, there’s little doubt Williams will be a big part of the pitching operation.
MIDWEEK STARTER
Midweek starter: Travis Smith RHP
Smith redshirted as a freshman in 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery and heart surgery, which took place in 2021. Before Tommy John surgery, Smith was rising on draft MLB draft boards as a senior at Walton-Verona High School and was considered one of the top 100 players in the country according to Perfect Game. At 6-4, 200 pounds, Smith looks like a future SEC weekend starter. His fastball touched 96 in the fall, but he’ll likely sit in the low 90s with one of the better breaking balls on the team. Smith hasn’t recorded an inning in college yet, so he's likely to face a learning curve, but the hope is he develops this year and moves into the weekend rotation in 2024.
However, I’ll predict that Smith eventually becomes a weekend starter this season. I think he would’ve been a no-doubt weekend starter this year had his injury never occurred in 2021. And given that no clear-cut third starter has emerged yet leaves more of a possibility that Kentucky’s coaching staff gives Smith a chance against SEC competition if he has a good showing against non-conference opponents leading up to league play.
BULLPEN
SEC bullpen options: Mag Cotto LHP, Ryan Hagenow RHP, Darren Williams RHP, Seth Chavez RHP, Ryder Giles RHP, Austin Strickland RHP, Mason Moore RHP, Evan Byers LHP, Zach Hise RHP, Seth Logue RHP, RHP Christian Howe, RHP Drew Lafferty
With my projection of Lee earning the Sunday starter job, I’d look for Cotto, Hagenow, Williams and Strickland as some of the top options as long relievers out of the bullpen, along with East Tennessee University transfer Seth Chavez and East Carolina transfer Ryder Giles. Giles is a former two-way player at ECU who started nine games for the Pirates last season. He finished with a 3.27 ERA in 15 appearances. He could be an effective long reliever for the Cats this season as he throws from a sidearm position.
Chavez was brought into the program because of his velocity. He sat out last season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, but he touched 97 while at ETSU. Chavez was consistently throwing 92-95 mph this fall.
One player who could have a bigger role this spring is sophomore right hander Mason Moore. The Morehead native appeared in 19 games as a freshman but sources said Moore was one of the Wildcats’ best pitchers in fall practice.
Other wildcards include Zach Hise, Seth Logue, Christian Howe, Evan Byers and freshman Drew Lafferty. Hise was a weekend starter at Missouri his freshman season in 2021 before missing all of 2022 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Howe redshirted last season but struck out 14 batters in seven innings during fall practice. Logue had a tough sophomore season but is likely to still get a shot at meaningful innings.
Howe might be one of the bigger surprises coming into the season. A redshirt freshman from Danville, Kentucky, Howe had a prolific high school career but needed to add weight before he could withstand the grind of a collegiate season. He was up to 88 mph when I saw him a few weeks ago and has a delivery that can be deceiving to hitters. I’m not sure exactly what his role will be, but I think Howe has put himself in a position to get some real innings this year.
Lafferty, the lone freshman on this list, impressed the coaching staff with his fastball movement, which topped out at 93 mph in a recent scrimmage, and offspeed pitches that he can throw for strikes. I like Lafferty’s pure stuff, but he’s struggled to find the zone in recent scrimmages. Maybe it’s an instance of a young player trying to do too much to solidify a role with the season on the doorstep. Either way, he’ll have to prove he can find the zone when the games start counting.