Notebook: Travis Smith enters weekend rotation
Plus some NCAA Tournament projections, MLB draft thoughts and injury updates on two commitments.
With just one midweek game remaining in the 2023 season, Kentucky is shaking up its weekend rotation. Redshirt freshman Travis Smith will move into a starting role this weekend against South Carolina.
Smith, a native of Walton, Kentucky, started the first nine midweek games for the Wildcats. He has a 3-1 record with a 4.02 ERA in 31.1 innings pitched this season. The 6-foot-4, 200-pounder is coming off his best start of the season. Smith recorded a season-high five innings with eight strikeouts and only one earned run allowed against in-state rival Louisville.
A former top-100 recruit in high school, Smith’s trajectory to this point suggested he was on his way to being a weekend starter on next year’s Kentucky team. With a fastball that has reached 96 miles per hour and a wipeout breaking ball, Smith has flashed some of the best pure stuff of any of Kentucky’s pitchers. He’ll be challenged in his first career start as South Carolina ranks No. 3 nationally in D1baseball.com’s poll and ranks in the top three in the conference in runs batted in, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and runs scored.
Kentucky will likely start Smith on Friday night instead of Darren Williams. Williams, who had Tommy John surgery last year, started this season in the bullpen and has pitched in relief at different points in his collegiate career.
It’s a big moment for Smith, but one he’s ready to take on.
"He's just been getting better every week and gave us a chance,” head coach Nick Mingione told reporters after the Louisville game. “I hated it that we couldn't get the win, especially for him because of the way he pitched ... this was his best outing, kept a really good offense at bay.”
NCAA TOURNAMENT PROJECTIONS
A new round of NCAA Tournament projections was released this week by Baseball America and D1baseball.com. The Wildcats were considered to be in the hosting conversation a few weeks ago — and still would be with a strong close to the season — but Kentucky is now positioned as a No. 2 seed.
D1baseball projects the Wildcats as the No. 2 seed in the Durham Regional with Duke as the top seed. Kentucky’s first-round matchup would be against No. 3 UCLA. The Bruins are currently 24-16-1 this season. Ivy League representative Harvard rounds out the region. Baseball America has Kentucky staying in the ACC but heading to Coral Gables. Again, UCLA is the projected opponent in this region with Miami as the top seed and Florida Gulf Coast as the 4-seed.
Kentucky is still in good shape for the NCAA Tournament, but an 0-4 week last week shortened the leash slightly. The Wildcats have the No. 4 RPI in the country and are 11-10 in the SEC. If Kentucky can win one game per weekend over the next three weeks, it shouldn’t have much to worry about on selection day.
TWO COMMITMENTS INJURED
Two pitchers committed to Kentucky were injured this spring. 2023 Ohio right-handed pitcher Tommy Skelding will have Tommy John surgery later this month while Hopkinsville, Kentucky, right-handed pitcher Zach Moss, a 2024 commitment, has started his recovery from Tommy John surgery.
Skelding is currently ranked as the No. 290 player in the country by Perfect Game. Here was my scouting report on Skelding before the season:
“Every year there are players who leave coaches holding their breath as the MLB draft rolls around. Skelding could be that player this summer. His fastball and breaking ball have top-of-the-line metrics, which scouts love to see. He’s aggressive on the mound and could have a fastball that hits around 95 mph in the spring. Skelding jumped over 250 spots in the most recent Perfect Game rankings, so it’ll be interesting to see how he’s viewed in the industry once his senior season is complete.”
As it turned out, Skelding did not throw this spring. He’ll continue his rehab at Kentucky this fall. Moss is a 6-foot-6, 180-pounder who was untouchable in his short appearances this spring. He threw just 10.1 innings but didn’t give up an earned run and struck out 18 and walked just three hitters.
THOUGHTS ON THE 2023 CLASS WITH THE MLB DRAFT A FEW MONTHS OUT
In my last post, I mentioned a possible mailbag newsletter. I only received a few questions so perhaps I’ll try again a little bit later. However, I did receive a question from subscriber Jon Borie on this year’s recruiting class.
Q: UK seemed to sign a pretty big class. How will the draft affect their chances of getting to campus?
Kentucky has 15 high school signees in 2023, its biggest class since 2019. They also have a commitment from junior college outfielder Ben Higdon — originally from Paducah, Kentucky — and a transfer in right-handed pitcher Johnny Hummel from Eskrine College in South Carolina.
In recent years, Kentucky hasn’t had much luck in the draft. Jackson Merrill, a prep shortstop from Maryland, in the 2021 class, was a decommitment from Army and had mostly flown under the radar before committing to Kentucky. But by the middle of his senior season, it seemed clear that he would be picked high enough to receive a large signing bonus. Merrill was selected by the San Diego Padres in the first round and signed for $1.8 million. Baseball America currently ranks him as the 18th-best prospect in all of baseball.
(Kentucky also lost John Rhodes a year earlier than expected in 2021 because the MLB changed the draft date from June to July, causing Rhodes to be draft eligible based on his birthday.)
Last year, Tommy Specht signed with the Texas Rangers in the sixth round for $450,000. It wasn’t a huge surprise as he seemed deadset on the pro route for most of his senior season. However, the tough blow came when right-handed pitcher Caden Dana, a top-75 prospect going into the draft by most publications, made it through the first two days of the draft without being selected. But in the 11th round, the Los Angeles Angels gave Dana $1,497,500 to sign. It was the largest signing bonus for any player in MLB history selected after the 10th round.
I say all of that to suggest that Kentucky needs some good fortune, and I think it’ll get it this time around. As of now, I’d expect all 15 high school signees to end up on campus.
Left-handed pitcher Ben Cleaver seemed to have the most buzz early in the spring as 28 scouts attended one of his starts in mid-March, but high school left-handed pitchers are among the most difficult signs in the draft. Last year’s draft saw 19 high school left-handed pitchers drafted with 14 choosing to sign. However, just five of those players received at least $1 million to sign.
In-state lefty Evan Hart also had some buzz — and is one of the state’s leaders in strikeouts this spring with 89 Ks in 43.1 innings, along with fellow in-state signee Connor Fugate’s 88 strikeouts in 44.1 innings — but I think he’ll come to Kentucky and compete for a spot early in his career. I’d also heard that the coaching staff was keeping tabs on Maryland outfielder Josh Skowronski after a hot start to his senior season, but I think all signs point to him coming to Lexington at this point.
Fans can view the full commitment list and scouting reports for most players committed to Kentucky through the 2026 class.