Kentucky baseball NCAA Tournament projections (4/24)
A look at where some of the sport's leading publications see Kentucky landing this postseason.
The Kentucky baseball team heads into its series against South Carolina this weekend as winners of three straight. Following back-to-back wins in Knoxville to take a series over No. 2 Tennessee, the Wildcats returned to Kentucky Proud Park on Tuesday night and routed No. 19 Louisville 17-5 in seven innings.
Kentucky is now 23-15 overall and 8-10 in the Southeastern Conference. As of Thursday evening, the Wildcats are No. 26 overall in the D1baseball.com RPI and are 9-12 in RPI Quad 1 games. The rankings are subject to change, but as they currently sit, Kentucky has seven games remaining against RPI Quad 1 teams, six games remaining against Quad 2 teams and one game left against a Quad 4 team.
Though it’s not a perfect indicator, 13 wins in the SEC is typically enough for teams to at least be on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. Last year’s SEC was the strongest in history — at least by NCAA Tournament inclusions — as a postseason record 11 teams were selected. Five of the teams chosen finished with a 13-17 record in the league. According to Caleb Connelly, SEC teams with at least 14 regular season conference wins have been selected 70% (16 out of 23) of the time since the NCAA Tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1999. Based on a quick search, every team in the 2020s with at least 14 SEC regular season wins has been added to the field, so any program hitting that mark this year stands a solid chance to get in. The Wildcats would need to go 6-6 the rest of the way to get there.
Kentucky has never appeared in three straight NCAA Tournaments in baseball. It had never appeared in back-to-back tournaments until 2023 and 2024, so a return this year would be a big deal for the program.
Bat Cats Central will round up bracketology from around college baseball publications each week from now until the selection show on Memorial Day. Here is where Kentucky sits in various bracketology projections as of April 24.
D1baseball.com: two-seed
Kentucky’s road victories over Tennessee were enough for the guys at D1baseball.com to bump the Wildcats a seed line in their projections this week. Previously a three-seed, Kentucky comes in as the two-seed in the Chapel Hill Regional. Kentucky would face three-seed Connecticut in this scenario, with host school North Carolina and High Point as the other teams in the pod.
Baseball America: two-seed
Like D1baseball.com, Baseball America also views Kentucky as a two-seed at this point in the season. In this scenario, Kentucky would travel east to Morgantown, West Virginia, to be in West Virginia’s pod with Duke as the three-seed. West Virginia was eliminated by Kentucky in the Lexington Regional in 2023, but bounced back to win the Tuscon Regional in 2024. The Mountaineers were eliminated by North Carolina in the super regionals last year.
On3.com: three-seed
Jonathan Wagner of On3.com lists the Wildcats as a three-seed in the Tallahassee Regional. Kentucky would face Dallas Baptist University in its first game. Dallas Baptist of Conference USA is one of the true mid-major powers in the sport, appearing in all but one NCAA Tournament since 2011.
11Point7.com: two-seed
11Point7, a popular college baseball account on social media, also lists Kentucky as a two-seed in the Chapel Hill Regional. Like D1baseball.com, UCONN is the three-seed, but Holy Cross is the four-seed.