How might Kentucky handle its pitching staff in an NCAA regional?
Between picking a starter for the opening game to bullpen usage, Kentucky's coaches face some interesting decisions regarding its pitching staff.
The Kentucky baseball team wrapped up the regular season at Kentucky Proud Park on Saturday afternoon with a 5-2 loss to the Florida Gators, which ended the day as SEC regular season champions. The Wildcats are off to Hoover, Alabama, as the No. 8 seed in the SEC Tournament. The first pitch against the ninth-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
For the first time since 2017, the Wildcats go to Hoover as a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. There won’t be as much pressure on this team to make a run as previous teams faced, but knocking off Alabama, currently ranked No. 11 in the RPI, would further strengthen Kentucky’s hosting chances. It would also pit Kentucky against Florida in the double-elimination portion of the bracket, giving the Wildcats more opportunities to pick up quality wins before entering the NCAA Tournament.Â
Although the SEC Tournament is exciting, I wanted to write today’s newsletter on how Kentucky might manage its pitching staff once the 2023 NCAA Tournament begins. Roles have shifted since the beginning of SEC play, so let’s look at how this postseason might be shaping up for the Wildcats’ staff.
Who starts the opening game?
Conventional wisdom tells college baseball teams to use their best pitcher in the opening game of the NCAA Tournament. Winning the opening game sets up an opportunity on Saturday to win and advance to the regional finals. From there, a team can advance to the super regionals with one more victory. However, there’s breathing room with a loss because of the double-elimination format. Regardless, winning the first two games is a massive advantage because it cuts down on at least one potential game that must be played to advance.Â
In 2017, Kentucky head coach Nick Mingione and his staff went with conventional thinking. The Wildcats, which were the No. 1 seed and hosted at Cliff Hagan Stadium, started Sean Hjelle against the Ohio Bobcats and won 6-4. Hjelle was Kentucky’s Friday night starter that season and was the SEC Pitcher of the Year. The coaching staff would’ve been overthinking not to start Hjelle.
However, this 2023 team does not have such an easy choice. Senior righthander Logan Martin started off as the Friday night starter but was injured midway through the conference slate. In recent weeks, redshirt freshman Travis Smith has taken over the role and performed reasonably well. He went six innings and gave up just one earned run against South Carolina in his first SEC start. His first career road start did not go so well. Tennessee scored six earned runs, including three homers, in just two innings off Smith. I’d argue that there might not be a more difficult first start in the SEC than playing Tennessee in Lindsey Nelson Stadium, so I don’t read too much into that start.Â
He came back on Thursday night against Florida but his final line looked a little worse than it should’ve. He was tacked with five earned runs over five innings after reliever Ryder Giles allowed a few baserunners to come in after Smith exited the game.Â
I believe Smith is the most talented starting pitcher on Kentucky’s pitching staff. But the question the coaching staff faces is whether three – possibly four if the Wildcats advance in Hoover – SEC starts has adequately prepared Smith to start the opening game of a regional.Â
At this point in time, the most deserving option might be Sunday starter Zack Lee. Lee made nine SEC starts this season and finished with a 2-2 record, 4.35 ERA, 41 strikeouts and 24 walks in a team-high 39.1 innings in conference play. The senior from Effingham, Illinois, can also hang his hat on a solid performance against NCAA Tournament-bound Indiana State. On March 5, Lee struck out nine batters and allowed two earned runs over six innings in a 7-6 win over the Sycamores.Â
Lee has no NCAA Tournament experience, but he’s made 32 starts over four seasons and is enjoying the best year of his career. Lee would be my choice to start the opening game of a regional.Â
How does the rest of the staff shake out?Â
Before going any further, I wanted to stack Kentucky’s pitchers into three groups for the postseason: Definite starting pitchers, swingmen (pitchers who move back and forth from the bullpen to a starting role) and definite bullpen pitchers. I picked these arbitrary groups to understand better some of the decisions that Kentucky’s coaching staff could face.
Starting pitchers:
RHP Travis Smith
RHP Zack Lee
LHP Tyler Bosma
Swingmen:
RHP Logan Martin
RHP Darren Williams
RHP Zach HiseÂ
RHP Seth LogueÂ
RHP Austin Strickland
Bullpen only:
LHP Evan Byers
LHP Jackson Nove
LHP Mag Cotto
RHP Mason Moore
RHP Seth Chavez
RHP Colby Frieda
RHP Christian Howe
RHP Ryder GilesÂ
RHP Ryan Hagenow
Don’t get hung up on these groups as exclusives. Hagenow and Cotto have started games at Kentucky, just none this year so I doubt their first starts of the year will come in the postseason. But it is possible.
Roles for Strickland, Williams and Martin
Defining the roles of Austin Strickland, Darren Williams and Logan Martin might be the most fascinating aspect of the postseason pitching staff. I think their usage will come down to two factors:
1.) Since Kentucky is guaranteed two games in the NCAA Tournament, are any of these pitchers best suited to start on Friday or Saturday? I would lean toward starting Lee (best season) and Smith (most talented), but that’s a simplistic approach since it doesn’t consider the possible matchups.
2.) If the answer to the first question is no, does this trio all work out of the bullpen, or could someone be saved for a potential third game?
At the beginning of the season, Kentucky found a lot of success by starting Martin on Fridays and having Williams relieve him either through the end of the game or to the 8th or 9th inning. Since Martin has been injured and likely can’t throw many innings, I find it unlikely that he will start. For this exercise, let’s keep Martin in the bullpen.
If I had to pick one pitcher on Kentucky’s roster with the game on the line, I would probably go with Darren Williams. This guy is 25 years old and has been in college since 2017. He’s seen a thing or two out there, so I think he would be best suited to handle the big moment. Therefore, if it’s a tight game, I like the idea of bringing him in first out of the bullpen in the first game and either securing a victory or keeping a deficit within reach. Either way, he’s my choice for a bullpen role.
That leaves Strickland. He’s worked in short and long stints out of the bullpen this year and just made his first SEC start on Saturday against Florida. He allowed three hits and three earned runs over 6.2 innings while striking out seven batters. It was a phenomenal outing for someone in a different role than usual. Still, Strickland had pitched in nine innings over his previous two outings before Florida, so he’s someone in theory who could play a similar role as Williams, just in the second game.
Why these scenarios are intriguing
I mainly focused on those three pitchers above because I think they have the highest likelihood of impacting other areas of the bullpen. At most, Kentucky could have to play five games in four days if it were to go 1-1 through its first two games. That’s what happened in 2017. Brad Schaenzer, who had only started four games all season before postseason play, ended up starting a win-or-go-home game against North Carolina State in the regional in 2017. Schaenzer held his own, but those are the tough choices that can happen when coming out of the loser’s bracket.
If Kentucky commits to Williams, Strickland and Martin in the bullpen, they would in theory need to have five starting pitchers in mind. Lee, Smith and Tyler Bosma are the obvious choices. It’s a little trickier after that. Zach Hise made a spot start at LSU and got shelled, but so have a lot of other pitchers who faced the Tigers. Hise also worked as a weekend starter at Missouri as a freshman. Seth Logue was a midweek starter last season, but he’s not been used quite as much this year. Mag Cotto started the SEC Tournament semifinal last year once Kentucky advanced deep in the tournament, so he’s another option.
Of course, pitching decisions are ultimately decided by many variables. Perhaps the starter is rolling with a comfortable lead, the bullpen only needs to cover two or three innings, and a few of the team’s best arms can be saved for a different game. Perhaps you have a nightmare scenario like 2012 against Kent State where the opening game of a regional lasts 21 innings before a winner is decided and multiple pitchers have to be burned to get through one game.
Whatever happens, it’s fun to think about these scenarios once again. It should be an exciting week in Hoover, but I have to say I can’t wait until the team takes the field for an NCAA regional once again.