Evaluating Kentucky baseball at the halfway point of SEC play
The Wildcats are still in the mix for a third straight NCAA Tournament bid, but the first half has been defined by close losses.
Kentucky’s loss to Texas in Sunday’s rubber match dropped the Wildcats to 6-9 in Southeastern Conference play, marking the halfway point of league play. It’s a contrast from the past two seasons when Kentucky sprinted out of the gate, going 14-1 in the first half in 2024 and 10-5 in 2023.
But unlike the last two seasons, the schedule this year has been more challenging in the front end. In D1baseball.com’s most recent poll, four of the five teams Kentucky has played in the SEC rank in the top 11 nationally. Texas moved into the No. 1 spot in the poll following its weekend series win over Kentucky, and Georgia (fifth), Auburn (eighth) and Ole Miss (eleventh) are also projected regional hosts as of now. Kentucky’s only series win in the first half was against Texas A&M, who came into the season as the consensus No. 1 team in the country. The Aggies have been disappointing for most of the season, though they have won five conference games in a row.
How Kentucky has ended up in this position is probably the best place to start for this story.
It’s been frustrating, but still a long way to go
When mapping this section out, I tried to think of other teams to compare this one to in the Nick Mingione era. I don’t think there’s a great comparison, but if I had to pick one, it’s probably closest to 2022. The 2017, 2023 and 2024 teams all had at least 10 SEC wins by the halfway point. Unsurprisingly, those are Mingione’s three teams that have reached the NCAA Tournament. The 2018 team was both more hyped and more talented — that group set a school record with 13 MLB draft picks back when the draft was still 40 rounds — but the season cratered after injuries and lack of pitching depth caught up to the team. And the 2019 and 2021 teams, frankly, weren’t very good. The 2021 team wound up 12-18 in the SEC, the same record as 2022, but just No. 63 in the RPI. It never had a real shot at the NCAA Tournament.
The 2022 team was ultimately unsuccessful in its bid to make the tournament, but it was the first time since 2018 that the resume had substance. That team finished with 13 wins against teams ranked 1-25 in the RPI and finished 47th overall in the RPI. The 2025 team could be on a similar path in terms of quality RPI wins. As of Tuesday night, Kentucky is 6-10 against teams currently ranked 1-25 in the RPI. There are 12 games remaining against RPI top 25 teams, but those rankings fluctuate during the year. We’ll have a better idea of Kentucky’s true resume in the coming weeks.
But what’s frustrating is how much better of shape this resume could be. I thought Jacob Rudner of Baseball America summed it up well when discussing Kentucky’s SEC season thus far:
“Still, the Wildcats have remained competitive—their average margin of defeat in league play is just 2.7 runs, suggesting they’ve been closer than their record indicates. With the No. 41 RPI and No. 16 strength of schedule, Kentucky remains on track for a potential NCAA Tournament berth, but continued close losses have this group inching closer to the bubble.”
Eight of Kentucky’s SEC games have been decided by one or two runs. The Wildcats are 2-6 in those games. They have lost four one-run games at home while also blowing a 7-1 lead against Texas A&M. If Kentucky had found a way to win just one or two of those games, it’s entering the back half of SEC play in great shape to reach the tournament again.
Kentucky likely needs to go 7-8 in the final 15 SEC games to be in consideration for the NCAA Tournament. The schedule isn’t as brutal as the first half, but that’s not to say it’s easy. Using the current RPI, Kentucky will play against No. 4 Tennessee, No. 55 South Carolina, No. 35 Mississippi State, No. 25 Oklahoma and No. 7 Vanderbilt. A rematch against Louisville and a road game against Western Kentucky also provide opportunities for the Wildcats to pick up quality wins.
A step back in the portal
The turnaround of the Kentucky baseball program can be traced back to the beginning of the transfer portal era. The best starting pitcher and reliever in 2022 came from the transfer portal, as did the entire outfield and second baseman. With a mass exodus following that season, Kentucky went heavy in the portal in 2023 and brought in over a dozen new players. This included future high MLB draft pick Ryan Waldschmidt, top two leading hitters Jackson Gray and Hunter Gilliam, and stud defensive shortstop Grant Smith. It also included Patrick Herrera from Northwestern, who has patiently waited his turn to start and is shining this year with a .346/.500/.481 line in conference play.
The 2024 College World Series team had some solid retention from the 2023 Super Regional team, but the coaching staff crushed its portal class. Cincinnati transfer Ryan Nicholson tied the school’s single-season home run record with 23. Texas transfer Mitch Daly had a resurgent year at third base and hit a walk-off homer to win Kentucky’s first-ever game in Omaha at the College World Series. USC transfer Nick Lopez was one of the best hitters on the team during the early portion of the season and provided a stable presence in the lineup throughout the year. On the mound, Trey Pooser, Robert Hogan, Johnny Hummel and Cam O’Brien were all major pieces.
Kentucky’s coaching staff has rightfully earned a good reputation when evaluating transfers. But if you follow college sports, you know by now that classes don’t always pan out. By and large, this has not been a strong portal class so far for Kentucky.
Positionally, Columbia transfer Cole Hage has been the best addition by the numbers. Going into Tuesday night’s game against Miami (Ohio), Hage was slashing .325/.470/.615 while leading the team in home runs (9) and walks (20). But in conference play, Hage’s numbers are just .224/.361/.500, though he does have five homers. Illinois State transfer Luke Lawrence has been a steady presence, starting all 34 games at second base, though his offensive production has been limited. However, he’s a multi-year transfer gaining valuable experience this year that could lead to a second-year bump in 2026. San Deigo State transfer Shaun Montoya has also started 32 games and played in all of the Wildcats’ SEC games, though he’s slashing just .214/.333/.339 in those 15 games.
But the rest of the positional transfers have struggled to find their footing in the lineup. Center Fielder Will Marcy suffered a season-ending injury against Northern Illinois, but he was off to a slow start with a .115/.281/.192 slash line through 10 games. Dylan Koontz opened the season as the first baseman but was only the starter through the opening weekend at Georgia. However, he was put back into the lineup for Tuesday’s game and doubled twice in a 4-3 win, so he could remain in the order this weekend against Tennessee.
Koontz, catcher Raphael Pelletier and outfielder Carson Hansen all have 11 at-bats or fewer in SEC play.
It’s been a similar story with the pitching staff. Oliver Boone, Chase Alderman and Jaxon Jelkin are out this season with injuries, and Adam Hachman has not pitched this year either as he recovers from an injury he sustained at Arkansas. There could be a payoff with those guys in the 2026 season, but they have been missed this year.
Nic McCay has made all five SEC starts, but he currently has an ERA of 6.97 in those games and has struggled with a BB/9 of 6.98. Longwood transfer Ethan Walker opened the season as the team’s Sunday starter but has been moved to the midweek slot. Scott Rouse has been an important swingman, and at least in my opinion, he’s seemingly been better than his numbers suggest. But the SEC numbers are not kind: 17 IP, 25 hits, 16 earned runs (8.47 ERA), 17 strikeouts and eight walks with opponents hitting .329 against him. I still think he could have a strong final month of the season, however.
Simon Gregersen has turned things around after a slow start to the season, which is a good development for the bullpen. Cole Hentschel has only thrown 5.1 SEC innings but has held opponents to one earned run and a .167 average.
A young core is forming
One of the most encouraging aspects this season has been the performance of some of the program’s young players. Freshman shortstop Tyler Bell came in with high expectations after turning down the Tampa Bay Rays — who selected him with the No. 66 pick in the 2024 MLB Draft — and he’s lived up to them to this point in the season. Bell has handled the transition to the SEC extremely well, slashing .348/.403/.536 with seven doubles, two homers and 14 RBI. He is clearly Kentucky’s most talented player and is tracking toward being a high draft pick again in 2026.
I mentioned Lawrence earlier as someone who can return next season. For a brief stretch, Kentucky was starting an infield that all had remaining eligibility beyond this year. Bell and Lawrence started up the middle with sophomore Ethan Hindle at third and redshirt freshman Hudson Brown at first. Hindle has also played some outfield, but Brown has been in and out of the lineup. Sophomore Kyuss Gargett went a long stretch without starting, but he’s earned three consecutive starts at DH and looks poised to stay in the lineup for the foreseeable future. Lexington native Griffin Cameron has also started 16 games in center field this season.
And on the mound, Ben Cleaver is easily the team’s best starter and has turned into one of the most promising young pitchers in the SEC. Cleaver leads Kentucky in innings pitched (47) and strikeouts (56) and has walked just 16 hitters while holding opponents to a .175 average. Freshman Nate Harris has moved into the Friday night role after starting the season as the Wildcats’ midweek starter. One source told me in the fall that they felt Harris was a future weekend starter in his career, but this development is still ahead of the curve. In two SEC starts, Harris has pitched 7.2 innings and has allowed one earned run and opponents are hitting .241 against him.
One other redshirt freshman who is getting opportunities just about every weekend is right-hander Tommy Skelding. Skelding sat out last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s had mixed results so far, but he has a lot of potential and should continue to get chances throughout the rest of the season.